Fantasy Impacts of Deflategate

This article was originally taken from http://conciergesports.net/2015/05/fantasy-impacts-of-deflategate/

By now I am sure you have heard of “Deflategate.” Honestly, it is pretty hilarious that they are making such a big deal over some deflated footballs. I get it, it represents one team breaking the rules trying to get a competitive advantage, but it’s still a bunch of deflated footballs. Is it really worth all the hullabaloo? They still kicked the tar out of the Colts in the second half of the AFC Championship with fully inflated footballs. Maybe the Colts should have worried less about air pressure and more about winning the game.

But enough of that. Let us take a look at the potential fantasy football impacts of “Deflategate.”

As of now, Tom Brady is required to serve a 4 game suspension, which is huge news for fantasy football. I expected Brady to come into the season as one of the top 5 quarterback options. Obviously, he is behind Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck, but he had a legit shot to compete for that 3rd quarterback spot. Think about it, for the first time in a long time, Brady would have entered the season returning his entire group of receivers and a healthy Rob Gronkowski. Brady averaged 19.33 points over the last 12 weeks of the season, after that terrible loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. If he had averaged that many points over the entire 16 game season it would have been the 4thbest mark among quarterbacks. So all of this is to say that Brady still has the tools to be a top fantasy quarterback.

Now, drafting him would carry some risk. The Patriots have their bye in week 4, so anyone who drafted Brady would be without him for the first 5 weeks of the season. However, if he is around in the 6th or 7th rounds, I would not hesitate to take him. At that point you have your starting RBs, WRs, and maybe a TE or flex so you are about to start drafting for depth. The value of a potential top quarterback far outweighs that of a 3rd wide receiver or running back. There are plenty of decent streaming options for the first 5 weeks of the season, so you could get by. You might lose a couple games at the start, but you could end up having a dominant team by the end. Consider the scenario in which you draft a guy like Cam Newton or Matt Ryan in the 5th round. In this case I would feel comfortable using one of my next two picks on Brady. If you are waiting until round 5 to draft a quarterback then you should already have some solid starters at the other positions. Therefore, you can pick up Brady and use him as a strong trade piece to a QB needy team. Bye weeks do not start until week 4 so you would not need the roster space for depth. Additionally, it is around that time that you will see the owners of teams that are 0-4 and 1-3 start to make trades to shake up their rosters. This would give you the perfect opportunity to trade Brady or move on with him as your starting quarterback.

As for other Patriots, Rob Gronkowski can still comfortably be drafted as the number one tight end, and should be taken in round 1 or 2. Jimmy Garoppolo will need a safety net, and will more than likely just heave it Gronks way if he finds himself in trouble. Gronk was not healthy to begin the season last year, and was still far and away the best TE in fantasy football. He is dominant, and is a guy that will have no issue putting up points, regardless of who is throwing the ball.

I do not really trust Brandon Lafell and Julian Edelman, but I did not see them as anything more than a pair of WR3s before the suspension. If I had to choose one over the other, Edelman is the safer choice as he will see the higher volume of targets, however, I would not draft either of them if I could avoid it. My advice would be to draft them only as WR4s, so the 9th or 10th round.

Legarette Blount is a curious case. It would seem that he would be poised for a huge season. He has a seemingly clear path to the starting gig, with both Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen departing in free agency. Now with the suspension, his potential is even higher. The Pats lost their quarterback, so they run the ball. Seems like a pretty simple formula. Unfortunately, Bill Belichek still runs this offense, and he absolutely hates fantasy football players. Remember last season against the Colts? Ridley went down before the game so Vereen is clearly the new #1 guy. Plus, this is the Colts, so they will have to pass, which fits right into Vereen’s strengths, right? Wrong, instead some guy named Jonas Gray gets all the carries and runs for 200+ yards. It was frustrating, to say the least. So, the next week they play the Lions, conventional wisdom says that after a performance like that, Gray will get the start. Wrong again. Gray did not get a single carry as Legarette Blount came from Pittsburgh to score 2 touchdowns on 78 yards. That is the hell that Bill Belichek releases on fantasy football players. Despite the fantastic situation Blount may seem to have, I am going to avoid drafting him at all costs. If you want to take the risk you could justify him as a RB3, but someone else will probably draft him way higher then where he should be going. He might do a fantastic job the whole season. He might win you the first 4 games with monster performances. But it will come down to that one game, when it matters most, and someone else will get all the carries. You lose and your season ends because Blount racked up a whopping 2 points. Wouldn’t that just be “deflating?”