First round Impressions, Fantasy Implications, and What’s Next?

First round Impressions

Why the hell did I just spend 3 hours watching Mel Kiper and Jon Gruden yell at each other? Seriously, that was one of the most boring NFL drafts in recent memory. They were clearly trying to drag it out. At one time there were 4 picks that had been made but not announced, that's ridiculous. And how were there only two trades the entire night? That is not how I remember the NFL draft. The most interesting part of the whole night was when a guy in a skirt lifted the Commissioner off the ground. In fact, it was so boring that even the first two guys picked didn't want to be there! I blame Jameis Winston.

So what else did we see? Well, a lot of the talented guys with character issues are moving on to the next round. What an interesting story this whole La’el Collins thing is, he is not believed to be a suspect, but teams are going nowhere near him until he is cleared. Man, would it be a Bill Belichek move or what to pick him in the second round? I hate that guy. Randy Gregory could possibly be the most talented player in the entire draft and he is still on the board, which means there must be some serious issues there. (BTW if you do not know, there is this guy that did a couple scouting film reviews which are awesome, here is his Randy Gregory review. These are the best player scouts I've seen on YouTube and it clears up many of the misconceptions surrounding his talent. He does a real good job explaining the nuances of the positions and gives what a normal NFL scout would be looking for.)

How uneventful was that second pick? For how much drama we had coming into the draft surrounding that pick, I was extremely underwhelmed. I am interested to know if they planned on picking Mariota the entire time. It will also be exciting to see how Whiz handles this guy. He clearly does not fit into the established mold and the dynamic those two have moving forward should be a fun story to follow.

The Raiders made a smart pick for the second year in a row? Bring back Al Davis, the Oakland train wreck was way more entertaining.

The Jets ended up with the media consensus best player in Leonard Williams. How unstoppable will that line be with Mohammed Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, and now Williams? It seems as if the Jets’ only goal is to tackle Tom Brady. Not hating on the pick because it was probably correct, but man the Patriots better beef up their O line or look out. My favorite part about this pick was that Jet fans still booed. Oh, those Jets fans.

A running back was taken in the first round for the first time since Trent Richardson. That is exciting for the position. Especially considering these two guys are legit. The Rams have had to deal with Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch twice a year for a while now, and have finally decided enough is enough. I like the move to take Gurley and I think it makes sense. It is the tried and true formula in St. Louis, play defense and run the ball. As for Gordon, apparently the Chargers felt that the Texans were going to grab him so they had to move up. Eh, maybe a steep price but I think it will help that they do not have to depend on Philip Rivers as much. I know what you're thinking, and I get that there is value at the running back positions in the later rounds, but these guys are elite talents, and for every Le’veon Bell that is picked in the second there is an Isaiah Pead or LaMichael James.

Speaking of Le’veon Bell… The Steelers got the best value of the entire draft with Bud Dupree, it made me so happy that he lasted that long, some would say I was giddy. He will shore up the left outside linebacker spot for the future and maybe help out that run defense that has been lacking the past couple years.

My favorite laugh out loud moment of the draft was the Lions grabbing Laken Tomlinson at the top of the round. Maybe he turns out to be a fantastic guard, I actually really like him, but there were reports that some teams had third round grades on him. What makes this hilarious is that analysts leading up to the draft were all talking about how Detroit always goes BPA no matter what, blah, blah, blah. It just goes to show that all these “experts” know absolutely nothing about what is going to happen.

The Colts are apparently just going to try to score 60 points every game. Another wide receiver, seriously? I mean you just signed Andre Johnson, and you already have T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncreif, who looked pretty good last year. I really just do not see where Dorsett fits into their plans. Especially considering they are a team who is only one or two pieces away from being championship caliber.

Fantasy Implications of the First Round:

While we saw some potential fantasy stars get drafted last night, I only see a couple guys who should provide an immediate fantasy impact from this rookie class. In fact, I think we learned more about who will NOT make an impact this year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Starting from the top, if you trust Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota as your starting quarterbacks in fantasy leagues then you have way bigger balls than I do. I do not think either will be effective as day 1 starters. Winston needs to clean up his decision making, which will take time. He threw too many interceptions last year that were a result of just poor decisions. Evans is still probably a safe bet, but I would stay away from Vincent Jackson.

Tennessee Titans: As for Mariota, he has the tools to have a decent fantasy season but the talent around him is just awful. Neither Justin Hunter nor Kendall Wright has proved to be a viable target, and anyone that is drafted in the 2^nd round tonight would still have some work to do. Bishop Sankey is still going to be unusable as teams will once again stack the box, daring Mariota to make the reads and beat them with his arm.

Oakland Raiders: Amari Cooper is talented, pro ready, and has a good quarterback, but until I see that offense I am not depending on him as more than a WR4. He is worth a late round flier for sure, but I think someone else will draft him a lot higher than he deserves.

Chicago Bears: Kevin White seems like he could have an immediate impact in that Chicago offense, especially if they move on from Martellus Bennett. Alshon Jeffery is the primary receiver so White will see a lot of single coverage. Additionally, OC Adam Gase has had multiple relevant fantasy wide receivers in his system before. I can imagine some dominant fantasy performances from White throughout the season, of course Cutler is still the Bears quarterback so sprinkle some duds in there too. Probably a low end WR2 by the end of the season. The man who suffers most from this pick is Marquess Wilson. He was primed for a huge lift in fantasy football, but it was not meant to be, as now he is going to see all his glory go to the rookie.

St. Louis Rams: Todd Gurley is going to be a fantasy stud in the future. If you participate in a dynasty league pick him early and never look back. The Rams are clearly committed to running the ball. They will probably spend a couple picks beefing up their offensive line on day 2. If they do that then Gurley has RB1 upside by the end of the season. His injury is something to keep tabs on but reports are saying that he is progressing well. Tre Mason was successful running in this offense last year and that was with Austin Davis at quarterback. Mason is nowhere near as talented as Todd Gurley. Add it all up and it equates to a good fantasy season for the rookie running back.

New Orleans Saints: This pick may not seem like it has many implications for fantasy purposes but it says a lot. First, Peat will give Drew Brees some more time, something which he did not have much of. Second, it will open up huge holes for Mark Ingram. This pick tells me they will commit to the run this year, which means Mark Ingram is set to have a big fantasy season. Book it.

Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins picking DaVante Parker was one of my favorite fits of the draft. It just seemed so right. Look at the weapons on this offense: Davante Parker, Kenny Stills, Jarvis Landry, Jordan Cameron, and Lamaar Miller. This is the reason why Ryan Tannehill is a solid QB1 this year. You heard it here first. I honestly do not see how he can fail. He has proven he has the arm talent and the smarts are developing nicely. I am planning on starting Tannehill in every league this year. Now as for Davante Parker? Eh. You read what I just wrote, correct? Look at all those weapons. I love the talent on Parker, I just do not think the volume will be there to make him fantasy relevant this season. He has WR3 upside.

San Diego Chargers: Now I do not like Melvin Gordon as much as I like Gurley. I think the talent is there with Gordon, but the opportunity might not be. I see this as a RBBC situation. They will probably use Gordon as a two down back and then bring in Oliver or Woodhead on 3^rd down. Now, he can probably do a lot with 15 touches, but I would temper my expectations here. I would say a solid Flex with RB2 as his upside.

Philadelphia Eagles: I love Nelson Agholor for fantasy purposes this season. I love him for two reasons, first because who else are they going to throw the ball to? With Maclin gone that leaves a huge amount of targets up in the air, Agholor is the only one there to fill the void. Of course, Jordan Matthews will get some work but there is still a ton of targets to be had. Second, this offense was built for fantasy football. The fast paced offense made even Mark Sanchez fantasy relevant. Definitely high WR 2 upside.

Arizona Cardinals: This is another pick that does not seem very fantasy relevant. However, this is huge news for Carson Palmer and Andre Ellington. First off, Humphries will probably be taking over at right tackle for now. This is the side that Palmer got hit from this year. When he was healthy he was a low end QB1 and was definitely startable in standard leagues. Second, the fact that they went with O line and not a running back shows they are at least semi committed to Andre Ellington as a feature back. If they keep with that trend and wait to the 4th round then that seems like a huge vote of confidence and it will be safe to peg Ellington as a high end RB2.

Baltimore Ravens: I do not see Perriman as a particularly strong fantasy player this year. Sure, he is taking over Torrey Smith’s target, but Smith was not much more than a WR3 last year. He will be a very good NFL player, but I do not see much in terms of fantasy value with this pick. Probably safe to slot him as a WR4.

Indianapolis Colts: As I mentioned above, I am not sure where he fits into this offense. No way is he more than a WR4 this year. Probably closer to a WR5/6.

What is next?

I just said up above how not even the "experts" know what is going to happen. I have done a second round mock previously, and I stand by a lot of the picks if you are looking for something to reference. So what's next for me is the Salty Dog Saloon for happy hour.

Maybe next year I’ll try to watch the draft in Alabama with Jameis, he sure looked like he was having fun.