NFL offseason overview

Well, that was a fun NFL Draft. Of course when I say "fun," I don't really mean fun. But, it was the only real action we have had on the NFL front in the past couple months. Unless you count the major event that was the schedule release. If you read my last post, you know my thoughts on the first round. Well the second and third days did not offer that much more excitement. I actually have no clue why either. I typically love watching the NFL draft. It just seemed like this year’s version lacked the general luster and overall drama that the event usually has. I want to think that the change of venue had something to do with it. I have heard Chicago is fantastic, but I just do not think you can beat the New York location, and honestly is there anything better than watching a bunch of angry Jets fans interact with each other? They should make a sitcom about that. Now THAT would be good television. (Edit: I guess MTV already had that idea. Looking at you Snooki.) I would have to sit down and really think about what changes I would make to boost the excitement. I am really hoping that it was just the product of a predictable draft that lacked top end talent, and it will bounce back and become a “fun” event next year.

Now as far as analysis goes, I will try to give some on the off season as a whole. I hate all of these sites that only give draft grades. Most of them make absolutely no sense, and in the long run mean very little. I find this to be true for a couple reasons.

First, many of the grades that are handed out are majorly based on perceived value. Now, I think this notion is ridiculous. The ONLY people who know the true value of many of these players are the general managers. Anyone in the media who claims to know when a certain guy will go is 100% guessing. Anything you hear from a team is almost always a smoke screen. These general managers are trying to get as many of their guys as possible and therefore will never give information about who they really like. So saying, "well this pick deserves a C because this player could have been had in the next round" carries zero weight in my mind. 

Second, no one knows how a lot of these prospects will work out. It takes at least 4 years before you can accurately realize the value of any draft class. There are just so many factors to consider. The biggest evidence of this are the drafts of the Seattle Seahawks. For years they were given poor grades, and drafted guys the media were not too fond of. This is one of the more hilarious scouting profiles from recent years. Now they have entered the last season as the Super Bowl favorite, largely because of how they drafted. Need another example? The Cleveland Browns were lauded last year as having one of the best drafts in the NFL, and it looked great at the time. They got the drafts best cornerback, one of the top quarterback prospects, and picked up picks in the first, fourth and fifth rounds of this year’s draft. Now it doesn't look so hot. Gilbert was publicly called out by veterans on the team for his poor work ethic, they used the pick they acquired from the trade to grab a back-up center(not a knock on Erving, just noting that he is stuck behind a very talented Alex Mack), and their star quarterback just got out of rehab.

Now this isn't to say that all of the analysis that was done is pointless, because it's not. A lot of draft profiles have been accurate, and a lot of research is put into those projections. I tend to think what is most important to look at is need, potential for immediate impact, and team/scheme fit.

First and foremost, I will start with the team who had my favorite off season:

Buffalo Bills

This team has had an exciting off season and we should get to see an entirely different Bills team next year. The best and most important move was the one that they really did not have any control over, and that was moving on from Doug Marrone. He was a good coach, just not the right coach. He has been an important part in rebuilding the Buffalo Bills roster, but his ultra conservative game management might have cost them a couple games and a spot in the playoffs. The solution was found in Rex Ryan who is the complete opposite of conservative. They also brought in some guys that fit his personality, such as Lesean McCoy and Percy Harvin. While Harvin has been a headache at some of his other stops I think he will respect and enjoy the way Rex goes about his business. The Bills also give Rex one of the top defenses in the league to work with, and he should be able to improve the already dominant defensive group. Another underrated move was bringing in Matt Cassel. He will act as a good game manager with all the other talented players around him, and is a clear upgrade from EJ Manuel. The fact that Tom Brady is deep in deflategate allegations only heightens the excitement for the Bills, they play the Patriots week 2 and there is a very good chance he will be suspended for that game.

Now, I would like to cover 5 teams that I thought had solid off seasons: 

Baltimore Ravens

Ozzie Newsome proved once again why he is one of the best GMs in the business. He was able to resign Forsett and Canty, and bring in an upgrade at free safety, all for pretty cheap. But let’s not kid ourselves this off season was all about the draft. The Ravens had the best draft of any team in the league. They had some major holes on offense and filled them with some solid picks. In Perriman and Williams he was able to get two guys who have seemingly complimentary skill sets. No matter how quickly he develops, Perriman will be able to stretch the field in the way Torrey Smith has in recent years. Maxx Williams will be that dependable 3^rd down receiver that every quarterback loves. Add in the fact that they added a talented offensive coordinator in Marc Trestman, and they should be set on the offensive side of the ball. Carl Davis looks to take over the spot that Haloti Ngata vacated. Za’Darius Smith, Javorius Allen, Nick Boyle, and Tray Walker are all solid depth guys who should be able to contribute some in year 1.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Caldwell and Co. have made some pretty solid moves since taking over this organization. I was a big fan of their draft last year and I think Jaguars fans have some things to be excited about. I respect the way Dave Caldwell and Gus Bradley have been going about their business in the off season. They have understood that this was a multiple year rebuilding project and have for the most part avoided those franchise crippling moves that led to the demise of the old regime. This group has a vision of what they want their team to look like, and they bring in guys that fit that mold. They were able to add a playmaker at the tight end position, they found a Leo pass rusher for the defense, and they added a couple upgrades along the offensive line. They also added some quality depth through the draft in guys like James Sample, Rashad Greene, and Michael Bennett. Now, I don't love the Davon House deal, but they had to find an upgrade in the secondary, and he fits their scheme as a tall, physical cornerback. I think what is most important to take away from this off season in Jacksonville is that Gus Bradley has made Jacksonville an appealing place to play. This means we should expect more high profile free agent acquisitions over the years from the Jaguars. The injury to Dante Fowler Jr. is unfortunate, but they should be able to recover from that by implementing a rotation at the Leo position. Overall, Jags fans should see an improved product on the field, which is a good thing for a franchise that has been through a rough patch recently. 

Miami Dolphins

This off season has been all about the development of Ryan Tannehill. It was obvious he was never going to form a strong relationship with former receiver Mike Wallace, so they got rid of that headache and obtained Kenny Stills. Then, they grab a solid intermediate target in Jordan Cameron. Finally, they nab a future #1 wide receiver in the draft in Davante Parker. It is all about getting that passing game going. Jarvis Landry proved last season that he has the skills to play in this league, but he is not much more than a slot target. So, they grabbed two new outside guys to pair him with. That does not even take into account that they signed the best defensive player free agency had to offer in Ndamukong Suh. He should shore up both their pass rush and run defense and lead to a solid defensive season for the Dolphins. They look like a team that is making many of the right moves. 

St. Louis Rams

I really like what St. Louis did this off season, and when they move to LA they might just have something to build upon. First and foremost they drafted the biggest playmaker in the draft in Todd Gurley, and while he may be an injury risk he is still a valuable weapon. I also love that they were able to move on from oft-injured quarterback Sam Bradford. Nick Foles may not be a long term solution, but at least he does not carry the weight of being a former #1 overall pick and a hefty $13 million dollar price tag. This is a team that is showing it is committed to running the ball and stopping the run in 2015. They already had one of the more dominant defensive lines in the league and that was before they added Nick Fairley. They were able to draft a couple guys along the offensive line that will hopefully be able to step in and help out on that front as well.

Tennessee Titans

Two words. Marcus Mariota. That is what this is all about. They could have stayed the course and been stuck in mediocrity with Mettenberger, but they made the correct decision and drafted a potential game changer in Marcus Mariota. They also added a hall of fame coach in Dick Lebeau to coach up their brand new 3-4 defense. They were able to resign Derrick Morgan and brought in Brian Orakpo to assemble a pretty strong pass rushing duo. And to top it all one of my favorite moves was adding Dorial Green-Beckham in the second round of the draft. DGB has a huge chip on his shoulder and he is going to make sure he makes every team that passed on him pay. He has the physical talent to succeed in this league, and falling to the second round might have given him the motivation he was looking for to turn that talent into a productive NFL wide receiver. Overall, a solid off season for a team who had a lot of questions coming in.

Honorable Mention:

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks got the best “value pick” of the first round by obtaining Jimmy Graham from the New Orleans Saints. Say what you want about the rest of their draft but they got one of the best playmakers in the entire league. Graham is a guy opposing defenses will spend all week game planning for. This move should open up some space for Marshawn and Russell in the run game. Opposing safeties or linebackers will have to account for Graham’s presence on the field and that will limit the number of 8 man fronts this team will see during the season.

Now here are five teams whose off seasons I was not that fond of:

Carolina Panthers

Cam Newton got screwed. He has got to have some of the worst luck in the entire NFL. Management completely fucked up the draft. I like Shaq Thompson, and I am sure he is a great person, but I do not see how he fits on this team. They already have a versatile weak side outside linebacker! In fact, Thomas Davis, the 2014 Walter Payton Man of the Year, announced the pick of Thompson. It was kind of an awkward moment, as Davis was announcing the selection of his future replacement. Then, they proceeded to trade away the rest of their picks in this draft to move up and still left Cam with basically no help for the upcoming season. They still have no left tackle, they still have no speedy WR threat, and they still have no legit pass rushing threat. Things are not looking good in Charlotte this year.

Dallas Cowboys

Every time it seems as if the Cowboys have finally taken a step forward, they then take 5 steps backwards. This off season has not been kind to the Dallas Cowboys. First, they let the league’s leading rusher walk out the door and go to a division rival. He signed a pretty reasonable contract, so I don’t really know what happened there. Then they try to replace him with a guy who has spent his whole career battling injuries and mediocrity. I do not understand the rationale behind it. Then they go and sign Greg Hardy who is already causing problems in the locker room and will not even be able to play the first 10 games. THEN they draft a guy who is already in the league’s drug program; sorry if I am not confident that the Cowboys will have a support system to keep him in check. It just all seems painfully obvious that Jerry Jones is up to his old tricks again. It’s not even an issue of talent. I love the talent of Gregory and Hardy, it’s just these are two guys with serious issues that need to be corrected, and like it or not character is a huge factor in determining if guys make it in the NFL. The addition of La’el Collins makes up some ground, as I don’t see a character issue there, but the other issues are just go great that they will just compound until the whole team implodes. It’s a shame too because they were finally making strides in the right direction, and now I just do not see them as a team that has gotten better.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts seem to be pretty comfortable with their offensive line and run defense, and I am not sure why. Sure, they got Andrew Luck a couple new weapons, they signed a veteran running back, but I do not think they did what they needed to do to compete for a Super Bowl. For starters, they completely neglected the offensive line until the 7^th round. I like the picks of Henry Anderson and David Parry, but I am not sure they can be counted on as early contributors. They will always have a chance with Luck under center, and I wouldn't say their Super Bowl window is closing, but it will never be as easy as it is now. Luck is scheduled to get a serious raise after this season, where he will see his cap hit go up $11 million dollars. He is certainly worth it, but that prohibits them from signing other elite talents. Add on the fact that they will soon have to pay TY Hilton, Anthony Castonzo, Dwayne Allen and they could run into some serious cap problems. Additionally, the window on some of their talented veteran guys like Robert Mathis and Mike Adams are closing. This team was only a couple pieces from a Super Bowl last year, and I don’t think they added those pieces this off season.

San Francisco 49ers

This team will not be that good because they lost one of the best coaches in the league, it is as simple as that. There have been countless examples throughout history that exemplify how important a good coach is to a team in the NFL. For some reason management and the players decided winning was not as important as their feelings and they sent him packing. Then, their all-pro linebacker and their 2014 3rd round pick retire from the game. Now there is a strong possibility of Justin Smith retiring too. This team is far from the dominating group we saw in the Super Bowl just a short three years ago. The defense is in shambles, the offense lacks consistency, and the roster has been depleted of any type of depth or future stars. This is going to be a bad team in the upcoming season, and honestly, it’s a little bit sad considering where they just came from.

Denver Broncos

It’s not that they will be worse, I just don’t see them getting over that playoff hump that they have been stuck on the past couple years. The decision to fire John Fox was odd at this point because it kind of seems like they are starting over. I don’t know if you can pin last season’s playoff struggles on Fox as Peyton Manning practically limped into the playoffs. While it was clear Fox was not the best guy for the job, he had shown some success in getting them to the Super Bowl just a couple years ago. I like the hire of Kubiak and think it is a solid choice for the future of the organization, but I am not sure it puts them in the win-now mode that they need. I get that they want to move to a run heavy attack to keep Peyton upright for the playoffs, but that is just not how this team was built. It was built to support a dynamic passing attack to get ahead early, and then have the defense pin their ears back and get after the quarterback. It will be interesting to see how the current roster adapts to the new schemes. But it is more than just the coaching changes, they will have to mitigate the losses of Terrance Knighton, Orlando Franklin, and Julius Thomas. I look at the moves they made this year, and they scream of a team in transition which is not the message that I was necessarily expecting.

Honorable Mention:

Minnesota Vikings

I would not say the Minnesota Vikings will be worse next year but I am not sure they got much better. They added a potential character issue in Mike Wallace and they still have the lingering issue that is Adrian Peterson. While these two guys are talented, their behavior could become a poison to the rest of the team. Peterson does not want to be in Minnesota anymore, and Wallace will start to complain any time he feels he is being neglected. They had a pretty solid draft which is why the off season was not a complete waste, but will it be enough to combat the two very negative personalities that are on their roster?

There is one team that has me so confused that I am hanging on the edge of my seat to see what happens next:

Philadelphia Eagles

I put Philadelphia in their own section because I am not sure if I like the personnel moves, but I do appreciate the culture Chip Kelly is building. So far in his tenure as head coach he has moved on from a Pro Bowl running back, two Pro Bowl wide receivers, and a Pro Bowl quarterback. There are also rumors he is trying to trade his Pro Bowl Guard, and a very talented ILB and defensive end. While this might deter some star players from wanting to play in Philadelphia, it also lights a fire under the guys that are already there. They see that anyone and everyone is open to be moved at any time. So the way I see it there are two possible outcomes, either the players bust their ass on every down for this guy just to keep their job and they win a lot of games, or… everyone gets extremely frustrated, there is no trust in the locker room, and the entire organization collapses.

And as always:

Pittsburgh Steelers

Of course as a Steeler fan I am 100% obligated to love their off season so I could not include them with the rest due to my complete bias. If I had to grade this off season on a scale of 1 to 5 I would give it a “Steelers.” They remained quiet while resigning their key guys and adding through the draft. I actually loved their draft as Dupree, Golson, Grant, and Jesse James completely fit into what they need. I watched a lot of film on Golson and he seems like a perfect fit if they continue primarily running their off zone coverage that they used so much last year. Coates seemed like an interesting pick in the 3^rd round, but I trust the Steelers when it comes to developing receivers. They resigned their franchise quarterback to make sure he will retire a Steeler, which is a huge deal and should not be understated. All in all it was a solid off season for the Steelers as they retained all of their key guys, picked up some solid depth/potential starters in the draft, and got to watch a couple old time Steelers from the dominant teams of the past retire.

First round Impressions, Fantasy Implications, and What’s Next?

First round Impressions

Why the hell did I just spend 3 hours watching Mel Kiper and Jon Gruden yell at each other? Seriously, that was one of the most boring NFL drafts in recent memory. They were clearly trying to drag it out. At one time there were 4 picks that had been made but not announced, that's ridiculous. And how were there only two trades the entire night? That is not how I remember the NFL draft. The most interesting part of the whole night was when a guy in a skirt lifted the Commissioner off the ground. In fact, it was so boring that even the first two guys picked didn't want to be there! I blame Jameis Winston.

So what else did we see? Well, a lot of the talented guys with character issues are moving on to the next round. What an interesting story this whole La’el Collins thing is, he is not believed to be a suspect, but teams are going nowhere near him until he is cleared. Man, would it be a Bill Belichek move or what to pick him in the second round? I hate that guy. Randy Gregory could possibly be the most talented player in the entire draft and he is still on the board, which means there must be some serious issues there. (BTW if you do not know, there is this guy that did a couple scouting film reviews which are awesome, here is his Randy Gregory review. These are the best player scouts I've seen on YouTube and it clears up many of the misconceptions surrounding his talent. He does a real good job explaining the nuances of the positions and gives what a normal NFL scout would be looking for.)

How uneventful was that second pick? For how much drama we had coming into the draft surrounding that pick, I was extremely underwhelmed. I am interested to know if they planned on picking Mariota the entire time. It will also be exciting to see how Whiz handles this guy. He clearly does not fit into the established mold and the dynamic those two have moving forward should be a fun story to follow.

The Raiders made a smart pick for the second year in a row? Bring back Al Davis, the Oakland train wreck was way more entertaining.

The Jets ended up with the media consensus best player in Leonard Williams. How unstoppable will that line be with Mohammed Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, and now Williams? It seems as if the Jets’ only goal is to tackle Tom Brady. Not hating on the pick because it was probably correct, but man the Patriots better beef up their O line or look out. My favorite part about this pick was that Jet fans still booed. Oh, those Jets fans.

A running back was taken in the first round for the first time since Trent Richardson. That is exciting for the position. Especially considering these two guys are legit. The Rams have had to deal with Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch twice a year for a while now, and have finally decided enough is enough. I like the move to take Gurley and I think it makes sense. It is the tried and true formula in St. Louis, play defense and run the ball. As for Gordon, apparently the Chargers felt that the Texans were going to grab him so they had to move up. Eh, maybe a steep price but I think it will help that they do not have to depend on Philip Rivers as much. I know what you're thinking, and I get that there is value at the running back positions in the later rounds, but these guys are elite talents, and for every Le’veon Bell that is picked in the second there is an Isaiah Pead or LaMichael James.

Speaking of Le’veon Bell… The Steelers got the best value of the entire draft with Bud Dupree, it made me so happy that he lasted that long, some would say I was giddy. He will shore up the left outside linebacker spot for the future and maybe help out that run defense that has been lacking the past couple years.

My favorite laugh out loud moment of the draft was the Lions grabbing Laken Tomlinson at the top of the round. Maybe he turns out to be a fantastic guard, I actually really like him, but there were reports that some teams had third round grades on him. What makes this hilarious is that analysts leading up to the draft were all talking about how Detroit always goes BPA no matter what, blah, blah, blah. It just goes to show that all these “experts” know absolutely nothing about what is going to happen.

The Colts are apparently just going to try to score 60 points every game. Another wide receiver, seriously? I mean you just signed Andre Johnson, and you already have T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncreif, who looked pretty good last year. I really just do not see where Dorsett fits into their plans. Especially considering they are a team who is only one or two pieces away from being championship caliber.

Fantasy Implications of the First Round:

While we saw some potential fantasy stars get drafted last night, I only see a couple guys who should provide an immediate fantasy impact from this rookie class. In fact, I think we learned more about who will NOT make an impact this year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Starting from the top, if you trust Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota as your starting quarterbacks in fantasy leagues then you have way bigger balls than I do. I do not think either will be effective as day 1 starters. Winston needs to clean up his decision making, which will take time. He threw too many interceptions last year that were a result of just poor decisions. Evans is still probably a safe bet, but I would stay away from Vincent Jackson.

Tennessee Titans: As for Mariota, he has the tools to have a decent fantasy season but the talent around him is just awful. Neither Justin Hunter nor Kendall Wright has proved to be a viable target, and anyone that is drafted in the 2^nd round tonight would still have some work to do. Bishop Sankey is still going to be unusable as teams will once again stack the box, daring Mariota to make the reads and beat them with his arm.

Oakland Raiders: Amari Cooper is talented, pro ready, and has a good quarterback, but until I see that offense I am not depending on him as more than a WR4. He is worth a late round flier for sure, but I think someone else will draft him a lot higher than he deserves.

Chicago Bears: Kevin White seems like he could have an immediate impact in that Chicago offense, especially if they move on from Martellus Bennett. Alshon Jeffery is the primary receiver so White will see a lot of single coverage. Additionally, OC Adam Gase has had multiple relevant fantasy wide receivers in his system before. I can imagine some dominant fantasy performances from White throughout the season, of course Cutler is still the Bears quarterback so sprinkle some duds in there too. Probably a low end WR2 by the end of the season. The man who suffers most from this pick is Marquess Wilson. He was primed for a huge lift in fantasy football, but it was not meant to be, as now he is going to see all his glory go to the rookie.

St. Louis Rams: Todd Gurley is going to be a fantasy stud in the future. If you participate in a dynasty league pick him early and never look back. The Rams are clearly committed to running the ball. They will probably spend a couple picks beefing up their offensive line on day 2. If they do that then Gurley has RB1 upside by the end of the season. His injury is something to keep tabs on but reports are saying that he is progressing well. Tre Mason was successful running in this offense last year and that was with Austin Davis at quarterback. Mason is nowhere near as talented as Todd Gurley. Add it all up and it equates to a good fantasy season for the rookie running back.

New Orleans Saints: This pick may not seem like it has many implications for fantasy purposes but it says a lot. First, Peat will give Drew Brees some more time, something which he did not have much of. Second, it will open up huge holes for Mark Ingram. This pick tells me they will commit to the run this year, which means Mark Ingram is set to have a big fantasy season. Book it.

Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins picking DaVante Parker was one of my favorite fits of the draft. It just seemed so right. Look at the weapons on this offense: Davante Parker, Kenny Stills, Jarvis Landry, Jordan Cameron, and Lamaar Miller. This is the reason why Ryan Tannehill is a solid QB1 this year. You heard it here first. I honestly do not see how he can fail. He has proven he has the arm talent and the smarts are developing nicely. I am planning on starting Tannehill in every league this year. Now as for Davante Parker? Eh. You read what I just wrote, correct? Look at all those weapons. I love the talent on Parker, I just do not think the volume will be there to make him fantasy relevant this season. He has WR3 upside.

San Diego Chargers: Now I do not like Melvin Gordon as much as I like Gurley. I think the talent is there with Gordon, but the opportunity might not be. I see this as a RBBC situation. They will probably use Gordon as a two down back and then bring in Oliver or Woodhead on 3^rd down. Now, he can probably do a lot with 15 touches, but I would temper my expectations here. I would say a solid Flex with RB2 as his upside.

Philadelphia Eagles: I love Nelson Agholor for fantasy purposes this season. I love him for two reasons, first because who else are they going to throw the ball to? With Maclin gone that leaves a huge amount of targets up in the air, Agholor is the only one there to fill the void. Of course, Jordan Matthews will get some work but there is still a ton of targets to be had. Second, this offense was built for fantasy football. The fast paced offense made even Mark Sanchez fantasy relevant. Definitely high WR 2 upside.

Arizona Cardinals: This is another pick that does not seem very fantasy relevant. However, this is huge news for Carson Palmer and Andre Ellington. First off, Humphries will probably be taking over at right tackle for now. This is the side that Palmer got hit from this year. When he was healthy he was a low end QB1 and was definitely startable in standard leagues. Second, the fact that they went with O line and not a running back shows they are at least semi committed to Andre Ellington as a feature back. If they keep with that trend and wait to the 4th round then that seems like a huge vote of confidence and it will be safe to peg Ellington as a high end RB2.

Baltimore Ravens: I do not see Perriman as a particularly strong fantasy player this year. Sure, he is taking over Torrey Smith’s target, but Smith was not much more than a WR3 last year. He will be a very good NFL player, but I do not see much in terms of fantasy value with this pick. Probably safe to slot him as a WR4.

Indianapolis Colts: As I mentioned above, I am not sure where he fits into this offense. No way is he more than a WR4 this year. Probably closer to a WR5/6.

What is next?

I just said up above how not even the "experts" know what is going to happen. I have done a second round mock previously, and I stand by a lot of the picks if you are looking for something to reference. So what's next for me is the Salty Dog Saloon for happy hour.

Maybe next year I’ll try to watch the draft in Alabama with Jameis, he sure looked like he was having fun.